Current spending exceeds its median while capital spending falls below

Public Economics

Current spending exceeds its median while capital spending falls below

By Alonso Valdés•2026-10-23
#budget execution#dipres#public spending#chile#budget 2026

In brief

Does total budget execution capture what is happening to capital spending? By August 2026, current spending stood 2.5 percentage points above its historical execution median, while capital spending was 4.0 points below its own. This split matters for budget decisions because the aggregate rate can conceal slower delivery of investment and capital transfers.

Current spending is above its pattern and capital spending below

Current spending reached 67.2% of its initial annual budget and capital spending 49.5% by August 2026, according to Chile’s Budget Office (Dirección de Presupuestos, Dipres). The approved budget law is the spending authority granted at the beginning of the year; these rates compare accumulated expenditure with that authorization. Current spending includes payroll, goods and services, interest, pension benefits and subsidies. Capital spending covers investment and capital transfers (Dipres, 2026a).

Capital spending is 4.0 pp below its median of 53.5%, while current spending is 2.5 pp above its own. Both remain inside their respective historical ranges. This separation changes the reading of the aggregate: a total above its median can coexist with capital expenditure below its own. The explorer provides both curves over the same set of historical years, preserving their different seasonal patterns.

The official August report also records a decline in accumulated capital expenditure in real terms. That variation compares amounts with the previous year, while budget execution compares spending with each year’s law. The two measures provide different readings of the same period (Dipres, 2026b, p. 1).

The split matters when reviewing budget allocations for the next year. Current and capital budgets finance different commitments, and approving investment resources does not ensure that projects or transfers are delivered within that year. Reading only total execution would overlook capital expenditure 4.0 points below its own pattern alongside current spending 2.5 points above its median. This suggests examining the investment schedule before treating aggregate execution as evidence that all parts of the budget are advancing at the same pace. Assessing spending consistent with the fiscal rule also requires structural revenue and the full-year expenditure outlook.

Current spending: +2.5 pp67.2%; median 64.7%; range 62.5–71.8%.Current spendingCumulative / approved law, %0255075100Jan: 7.5%; 7.0–8.7%Feb: 14.7%; 13.9–16.4%Mar: 24.0%; 22.6–25.6%Apr: 31.7%; 30.3–34.0%May: 39.4%; 38.1–42.3%Jun: 47.9%; 46.2–51.3%Jul: 56.0%; 54.5–61.2%Aug: 64.7%; 62.5–71.8%Sep: 74.2%; 72.0–83.0%Oct: 81.9%; 79.7–90.7%Nov: 90.1%; 87.7–99.5%Dec: 101.6%; 99.3–111.9%Median2026, Jan: 8.0%2026, Feb: 15.9%2026, Mar: 25.2%2026, Apr: 34.2%2026, May: 42.2%2026, Jun: 50.7%2026, Jul: 59.4%2026, Aug: 67.2%202667.2%JanMarMayJulSepDecHistorical min–max rangeHistorical median2026Aug: +2.5 pp vs median
Capital spending: −4.0 pp49.5%; median 53.5%; range 42.5–54.3%.Capital spendingCumulative / approved law, %0255075100Jan: 4.1%; 1.9–4.6%Feb: 9.6%; 5.3–10.7%Mar: 17.1%; 12.7–18.5%Apr: 24.1%; 18.3–26.5%May: 31.5%; 24.1–34.0%Jun: 39.4%; 30.2–41.0%Jul: 46.6%; 35.7–47.8%Aug: 53.5%; 42.5–54.3%Sep: 60.2%; 49.4–61.0%Oct: 67.1%; 56.6–70.4%Nov: 74.2%; 64.5–80.7%Dec: 91.8%; 82.2–98.8%Median2026, Jan: 2.8%2026, Feb: 9.1%2026, Mar: 16.9%2026, Apr: 24.2%2026, May: 30.9%2026, Jun: 37.5%2026, Jul: 43.5%2026, Aug: 49.5%202649.5%JanMarMayJulSepDecHistorical min–max rangeHistorical median2026Aug: −4.0 pp vs median
Budgetary Central Government: +1.7 pp64.5%; median 62.9%; range 61.0–66.6%.Total spendingCumulative / approved law, %0255075100Jan: 6.8%; 6.5–8.0%Feb: 13.7%; 13.2–15.5%Mar: 23.0%; 21.6–24.3%Apr: 30.6%; 29.2–32.8%May: 38.3%; 36.9–40.6%Jun: 46.8%; 45.0–48.8%Jul: 54.4%; 53.1–57.3%Aug: 62.9%; 61.0–66.6%Sep: 72.0%; 70.0–77.0%Oct: 79.6%; 77.7–84.7%Nov: 87.9%; 85.8–93.3%Dec: 100.0%; 98.4–107.4%Median2026, Jan: 7.2%2026, Feb: 14.9%2026, Mar: 24.0%2026, Apr: 32.7%2026, May: 40.5%2026, Jun: 48.7%2026, Jul: 57.1%2026, Aug: 64.5%202664.5%JanMarMayJulSepDecHistorical min–max rangeHistorical median2026Aug: +1.7 pp vs median
Figure 1. Current spending is 2.5 pp above its historical August median; capital spending is 4.0 pp below its own. The total remains within its range. Source: Dipres, monthly State of Government Operations, 2015–2026; own calculations. Download data (CSV).

Total execution conceals the difference between the two categories

Total budgetary Central Government expenditure reached 64.5% of the initial law. It is 1.7 percentage points (pp) above the August historical median of 62.9%, within a range of 61.0% to 66.6%. Budgetary Central Government is the national aggregate covered by this execution measure; it excludes extrabudgetary operations (Dipres, 2026a).

The August median is 62.9% across nine complete available years: 2015–2019 and 2022–2025. The median leaves half the observations on each side; each year receives equal weight, irrespective of its budget size. The minimum is 61.0% and the maximum 66.6%. Spending in 2026 therefore exceeds the median by 1.7 percentage points (pp), without reaching a sample maximum. These are descriptive statistics calculated for this note, rather than a confidence interval or a performance threshold.

Eight elapsed months do not imply that the same fraction of the annual law should have been spent. Transfers, payments and projects can follow uneven schedules; the historical curve compares August with August and retains the path through December. Months after the 2026 cutoff have no current observation. The figure leaves that segment empty and makes no projection for the year’s end.

Each budget chapter has a different historical pattern

National Assets has the largest positive deviation among comparable chapters, at 19.5 pp above its median; the Government Secretariat has the largest negative deviation, at 10.6 pp below its own. The Electoral Service also features among the largest positive gaps. Budget chapters include bodies outside ministries, such as the Judiciary. The ordering describes distances from each chapter’s own pattern and does not identify which institution executes its budget better (Dipres, 2026c; own calculations in table 1).

The whiskers place each deviation alongside its historical dispersion. A point far from zero can remain within a wide range, as National Assets does. Science, by contrast, exceeds the maximum of its comparable years. That chapter is compared only with 2022–2025, after the transfer from the National Commission for Scientific and Technological Research to the National Research and Development Agency. It is not assigned a spending history from before that boundary change (Ministry of Education, 2019, DFL 6, arts. 3 and 5).

Budget chapters ordered by deviationZero is the own historical median. Ordered top to bottom, first panel then second. Whiskers show min–max.Distance from own median, pp−40.00.040.080.0120.0National AssetsNational Assets: +19.5 pp; 106.9%; 55.6–143.4%+19.5Electoral ServiceElectoral Service: +18.7 pp; 100.7%; 42.7–162.6%+18.7Science and TechnologyScience and Technology: +7.5 pp; 61.0%; 51.7–58.8%+7.5JudiciaryJudiciary: +7.3 pp; 74.7%; 59.8–70.6%+7.3Transport and TelecommunicationsTransport and Telecommunications: +6.6 pp; 65.5%; 50.3–69.9%+6.6Public Prosecutor’s OfficePublic Prosecutor’s Office: +5.5 pp; 73.6%; 64.8–71.9%+5.5SportSport: +5.2 pp; 60.9%; 42.2–79.0%+5.2Foreign AffairsForeign Affairs: +4.4 pp; 68.1%; 49.0–69.3%+4.4HealthHealth: +3.5 pp; 76.7%; 68.8–78.8%+3.5DefenceDefence: +3.4 pp; 68.5%; 61.9–70.1%+3.4EnvironmentEnvironment: +3.3 pp; 62.5%; 55.1–81.8%+3.3PresidencyPresidency: +3.0 pp; 70.7%; 57.5–75.7%+3.0Comptroller GeneralComptroller General: +2.4 pp; 74.1%; 69.2–77.3%+2.42026 point; historical whiskerAbove median (+)Below median (−)
Budget chapters ordered by deviationZero is the own historical median. Ordered top to bottom, first panel then second. Whiskers show min–max.Distance from own median, pp−40.00.040.080.0120.0EducationEducation: +2.3 pp; 68.2%; 63.0–70.8%+2.3AgricultureAgriculture: +1.0 pp; 72.1%; 68.0–79.3%+1.0National CongressNational Congress: +0.3 pp; 66.1%; 64.0–69.3%+0.3Women and Gender EquityWomen and Gender Equity: −1.0 pp; 79.5%; 79.0–87.1%−1.0MiningMining: −1.1 pp; 64.5%; 46.0–76.8%−1.1Public TreasuryPublic Treasury: −1.3 pp; 73.0%; 73.1–79.8%−1.3Cultures, Arts and HeritageCultures, Arts and Heritage: −1.3 pp; 61.7%; 61.4–68.5%−1.3Labour and Social SecurityLabour and Social Security: −2.5 pp; 65.5%; 66.7–93.5%−2.5Public WorksPublic Works: −3.1 pp; 61.8%; 47.3–69.7%−3.1Housing and Urban DevelopmentHousing and Urban Development: −3.6 pp; 59.8%; 50.8–66.1%−3.6EconomyEconomy: −7.8 pp; 41.1%; 29.7–167.2%−7.8EnergyEnergy: −10.5 pp; 56.9%; 58.2–74.2%−10.5Government SecretariatGovernment Secretariat: −10.6 pp; 56.5%; 62.3–96.5%−10.62026 point; historical whiskerAbove median (+)Below median (−)
Figure 2. National Assets is 19.5 pp above its median and the Government Secretariat is 10.6 pp below its own. Source: Dipres, chapter execution reports; own calculations. Zero is each chapter’s own median. Whiskers show its historical minimum and maximum minus that median. The 26 chapters with comparable histories are ordered by deviation; their gross amounts include financial operations and are not added to reconstruct Central Government expenditure. Download data (CSV).
Budget chapter2026 (%)Median (%)Min (%)Max (%)Gap (pp)2026 / revised (%)Historical years / changes
National Assets106.987.455.6143.4+19.5104.62015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Electoral Service100.782.042.7162.6+18.779.52018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Transfer 2017; transition year excluded.
Science and Technology61.053.551.758.8+7.559.12022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Created 2019; transfer 2020. Transition years excluded.
Judiciary74.767.459.870.6+7.370.42015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Transport and Telecommunications65.558.850.369.9+6.667.22015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Government Secretariat56.567.162.396.5−10.658.22015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Energy56.967.458.274.2−10.555.62015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Economy41.148.929.7167.2−7.842.82015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Housing and Urban Development59.863.450.866.1−3.660.22015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Public Works61.865.047.369.7−3.158.62015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025
Table 1. Five largest positive and five largest negative gaps against own historical August median. Source: Dipres, chapter execution reports; own calculations. Initial approved law denominator, except revised-budget column. Download data (CSV).

Interior and Public Security have no band because of the 2025 transfer. The rule also excludes chapters with other recent boundary changes: Finance, the Presidential Secretariat, Justice, Social Development and Regional Governments. The transition year is discarded and three subsequent historical years are required. This conservative rule narrows the ranking’s coverage; it does not imply that excluded institutions have no data. Their available observations remain in the CSV and explorer, with the absence of a band stated explicitly.

The denominator changes the reading of a budget chapter

Public Works illustrates the effect of budget amendments: its August execution rate is 61.8% of the initial law, 3.1 pp below its historical median on that basis. Against the revised budget, execution is 58.6%, compared with a historical median of 57.9% also calculated against revised budgets. The gap changes sign. The revised budget incorporates decrees amending spending authority during the year; its level and history need not match the initial law (Dipres, 2026c).

The revised-budget column in the table keeps observed spending fixed and changes only the current denominator. Comparing that rate with a revised-budget median also requires recalculating the denominator for every historical year, as in the example above; those values are provided in the band CSV. Execution above 100% of the initial law does not establish a legal breach either: the reference is an initial authorization that may have been amended. These tables neither audit legality nor attribute changes to individual decrees.

Explorer. Select a chapter or the aggregate, inspect each month with the pointer, buttons or keyboard, and open the alternative data table. The curves use the approved-law denominator. Open full screen.

What this note does not establish

  • A deviation does not establish poor management, excessive spending or the cause of a delay. No year-end projection or assessment of compliance with the fiscal target is made.
  • Chapter expenditure is gross, includes financial operations and is measured in Chilean pesos. It cannot be summed to reconstruct consolidated Central Government spending.
  • Chapters without three comparable historical years have no band. The registry of institutional changes restricts the sample but cannot certify full economic equivalence.
  • The chapter reports consulted on 23 October lack a verifiable publication history. They are not claimed to reproduce exactly what was available on 22 October.

Data and method

The observed cutoff is August 2026. The historical band uses nine complete years, 2015–2019 and 2022–2025, with each year weighted equally. The pandemic years were excluded before calculation because extraordinary authorizations changed the comparison with the initial law. Including them raises the aggregate median to 63.9%, while 2026 remains inside the observed range. The band describes past experience rather than a probability forecast.

Data were consulted on 23 October 2026. The aggregate uses monthly reports published by the 22nd, taking the latest available annual edition for each historical year. Chapter comparisons use their own initial and revised budgets, restricting the sample to at least three years after any recorded boundary change. Execution rates compare spending with the budget for the same year, so no inflation adjustment is required.

The monthly series, bands and included years, exclusions, pandemic sensitivity and source inventory preserve the values and their provenance. The reproduction instructions explain how to change the cutoff.

Sources

  • Dipres (2016–2026; 2026a: agosto de 2026). Estado de Operaciones de Gobierno, diciembre de 2015–2025 y agosto de 2026. August 2026 report; Historical series and source locations; accessed 2026-10-23.
  • Dipres (2026b). Informe de ejecución del Gobierno Central, agosto 2026, 30 de septiembre. PDF; accessed 2026-10-23.
  • Dipres (2015–2026; 2026c: agosto de 2026). Informes de ejecución presupuestaria por partida. Public Works, August 2026; All chapters and historical reports; accessed 2026-10-23.
  • Ministerio de Educación (2019). DFL 6, fija planta de personal de la Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo y regula otras materias, 25 de septiembre. BCN / LeyChile; accessed 2026-10-23.
  • Ministerio del Interior y Seguridad Pública (2025). Ley 21.730, crea el Ministerio de Seguridad Pública, 5 de febrero. BCN / LeyChile; accessed 2026-10-23.